Global context: Tariffs on the rise

Global context: Tariffs on the rise

Globally Tariff News, we are seeing a renewed surge of tariff activity, especially led by the Donald Trump administration in the United States. For example:

  • The U.S. raised its average import duties to the highest level in a century, imposing 10–50% tariffs on goods from dozens of countries. Reuters+2Al Jazeera+2

  • Many major trading partners (Switzerland, Brazil, India, South Africa) are negotiating to avoid the toughest rates. Reuters

  • Countries are reacting strongly — concerned about supply‑chain disruptions, inflation risks, and retaliatory measures. Al Jazeera+1

This sets a more hostile trade environment than we’ve seen in recent years, and countries like Pakistan need to navigate these headwinds carefully.


Pakistan’s tariff situation and what’s changing

For Pakistan, the tariff story has several important threads:

Tariff cuts and liberalisation

  • Pakistan has agreed to reduce its average applied tariffs by around 43% over five years, aiming to bring them down from about 10.6% to around 6% in that period. Business Standard

  • A new “National Tariff Policy” has been approved, planning to simplify tariff slabs (0, 5, 10, 15, 20 %) and phase‑out many regulatory duties and additional customs duties. Ice

Bilateral US‑Pakistan tariff deal

  • Recently Pakistan secured a reciprocal tariff rate for its exports to the U.S. of 19%, down from an earlier proposal of 29%. Business Recorder+1

  • This rate is described as “balanced and forward‑looking” by Pakistani authorities, and they believe it gives Pakistani exporters a competitive edge in the U.S. market. Profit by Pakistan Today+1

Challenges remain

  • Even with these positive moves, the country faces risks: for example, a report warned that if the U.S. imposes much higher tariffs on Pakistani goods, exports to the U.S. could decline by 20‑25% (~US$1.1‑1.4 billion annually) — especially hitting sectors like textiles. Profit by Pakistan Today

  • Pakistan’s industrialists are also complaining about high energy tariffs domestically, which raise costs and make exports less competitive. Business Recorder


Implications & Outlook

What do these developments mean for Pakistan and for businesses?

Opportunities

  • The reduction of the U.S. reciprocal tariff to 19% opens up market access and may help Pakistani textiles, surgical goods, sports goods, leather – the sectors heavily reliant on U.S. exports — to be more competitive.

  • The liberalisation of tariffs domestically (and simplification of slabs) can reduce import costs of raw materials and intermediate goods, potentially boosting manufacturing efficiency and export competitiveness.

Risks

  • The global environment is volatile: high tariffs by the U.S. and likely retaliations mean export markets can shift quickly.

  • Domestic cost structure matters: even if tariffs abroad are reduced, if local production costs (energy, labour, logistics) remain high, competitiveness suffers.

  • The transition to lower tariffs may hurt certain protected local industries; careful policy design is needed to manage disruption.

What businesses should do

  • Exporters should monitor their cost structures and look to shift to higher value‐added products or new markets beyond the U.S., to hedge risk.

  • Importers of raw materials should take advantage of tariff reductions to streamline supply chains.

  • Policymakers should use this window of favourable tariff treatment (19% vs higher for other countries) to push for reforms: energy cost reductions, logistics improvements, productivity gains.

  • Stakeholders should engage in diplomacy and trade policy negotiations given that bilateral deals and global trade shifts will be critical.


What to watch going forward

  • Whether Pakistan delivers on the tariff liberalisation commitments: e.g., making the weighted‐average applied tariff decline as promised.

  • How other countries respond to the U.S.’s tariff approach — broader trade wars could affect Pakistan indirectly.

  • Whether Pakistan’s export sectors seize the opportunity: growth in textiles, leather, processed foods, etc.

  • Domestic reforms: energy tariffs, cost of production, regulatory environment. These will determine how well Pakistan can convert tariff access into actual export growth.


In summary: Tariff news matters a lot for Pakistan right now. On the positive side, there’s better access to the U.S. market and a plan for tariff liberalisation at home. But the global trade climate is choppy, and Pakistan’s domestic competitiveness remains a key constraint. If the country can manage reforms while exploiting these opportunities, it could benefit; if not, it risks being squeezed between global headwinds and internal cost burdens.